The call for this week: My work suggests a touch of caution here on a trading basis. My short-term internal energy indicator is out of gas. The intermediate energy indicator is neutral, but the long-term energy indicator remains highly bullish. The SPX is in a position, after a pause, to trade above its all-time high (~2940) and trade above my often mentioned target of over 3000. Regrettably, very few participants believed it, imbibed by Wall Street pundits’ chants of stock market crash, recession, an earnings recession, too much optimism, well you get the idea. The problem remains that there are not enough of us that are old enough to remember the 1949–1966 or 1982–2000 secular bull markets! In both of those secular bull markets, there were declines of over 30%, but it did NOT end the bull market.
This week is expiration week, which will be interesting to watch given that the market will be closed for Good Friday. First quarter earnings results arrive this week that could give stocks an upward bias, yet my work still suggests a stall. Additionally, it is Golden Week in Japan with their markets being closed for six sessions. This morning, the S&P 500 futures are flat as U.S. negotiators tamp down demands with China on a trade deal.