New market thoughts from Raymond James’ Jeff Saut: “It’s Learning!” 04/17/17

The call for this week: Last week Mark Hulbert published an excellent article about Dow Theory (Hulbert). He only made one mistake when he wrote that Dow Theory was created by William Peter Hamilton when in reality it was created by Charles Dow. Granted refinements were made to Dow Theory by Hamilton in the 1920s, Robert Rhea in the 1930s, George Schaefer, and my friend Richard Russell, but the theory originated with Charles Dow. There are not many of us left that IMO know how to correctly interpret Dow Theory, and by our pencil Dow Theory remains solidly bullish with the primary trend “up.” So over the weekend nothing happened with North Korea and this morning the equity markets are giving a sigh of relieve with the preopening futures relatively flat. Yet, retail sales have fallen for the second month, Japan is readying for a North Korea emergency, Vice President Pence warns North Korea on U.S. resolve shown in Syria and Afghanistan, the Pentagon is protecting the U.S. electric grid, bank loan growth has stalled, bank stocks that have led the rally are now in full retreat, President Trump says, “North Korean problem will be taken care of,” and the preopening S&P 500 futures are only off 3 points as we write at 5:00 a.m. In our view prudence demands caution here with the SPX only six points away from the March 27 reaction low of 2322.25.

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